The first half of the year delivered strong returns across risky assets. Global equities were up 12% during the first six months of the year, with a return of 15% and 10%, across US and European equities, respectively. The upside across US equities was disproportionately attributed to a small group of equities, led by Nvidia which has rallied 150% year-to-date. This is mainly attributed to the ongoing investment in AI which has boosted the earnings fundamentals of companies that are expected to benefit. This improvement in earnings expectations has so far managed to offset the volatility attributed to the timing of when the Fed will start cutting rates. In contrast to the ECB, which delivered its first rate cut in June, the US Fed has delayed the start of monetary policy easing to later this year. Bond markets have repriced downwards to factor a more gradual easing cycle and the more recent rise in political risks emanating from elections. The high yield market also locked a positive return of 3% during the first six months of the year.


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